![]() The stock just hit an ATL today ($5.87), which makes it risky for shorts.And Shift actually raised their guidance for Q4. So the short float would be closer to 64% of those shares being circulated.Īssuming all of this is correct, there needs to be a reason for the price to start turning bullish. So this means that only 25.3M shares is actually being circulated around. That's now 69% (hehe) of the shares bought, which translates to 56M shares. Say insiders sell half, they then own 11% of shares, and assume institutional ownership stays the same at 58%. Quick math time, Days to cover would be roughly 10 days, not great but not bad.Ī 20% short float with 10 days to cover could cause some sort of squeeze, but here's why I think this number is severely underestimating the potential. I'll go ahead and say worse case scenario everyone sold half, not realistic but why not i'd rather be conservative) Insider Ownership: 23% (HOWEVER, during their Q3 conference call, they stated that their lockup expiration was Monday 11/15) so it's safe to assume that this could now be less. Short Float: 20% (ranges from 19%-25% depending on what website so I'll use 20%) -16.26M However, the numbers with this stock just seem a bit too compelling to ignore. It's simply not part of my trading style. ![]() At least from a purely technical standpoint.Īlright, I've never been involved in a short squeeze, nor do I try and seek them out. If you're trading this, the obvious play would be to wait and see if it breaks $6.50, then ride it up to $8 and see what it does there. $6.50 is going to be a very tough resistance to break, once that's broken though it shouldn't have any trouble until the $8-$8.50 area.įalling wedges are considered bullish, but what I really want to point out is the very clear bullish RSI divergence, this happens when the stock makes a new low but the RSI doesn't follow. As you can see, there is a falling wedge. Usually just plot supports and resistances etc. Okay I like to keep my technical analysis to a minimum. And they are significantly cheaper than Carvana. Their losses aren't growing as fast as their revenue which means that they're proving they can scale and can turn profitable. In conclusion: They're obviously growing. ($100M less than THEIR ENTIRE MARKET CAP) this is up 360% YOY So their cash and cash equivalents makes up 45% of their entire market cap.) Net Loss: $37.4M, up 60% YOY (Note that it hasn't grown as much as their revenue or profit, meaning that they're proving they can scale.)Ĭash and Cash Equivalents: $248M (Let me remind you again that their Market Cap is $540M. Open up the image or something if it's too hard to see or just go on the website. Carvana has a market cap of $50B, so they brought in 7%.Ĭomparison of $SFT and $CVNA via. Shifts market cap is $540M, so in a single quarter, they brought in 33% of their total market cap. However, this number alone means nothing. Shift reported $180M in revenue, Carvana reported $3.5B. SFT reported -0.33 eps, Carvana -0.38 eps. Comparing both companies Q3 results show the same thing, SFT is the better deal every time. In fact, $SFT has Carvana beat in essentially every category. P/B (price to book): 3.14 (Carvana's is 66.25, again a smaller number is better so Carvana would be considered significantly more expensive.) Essentially Carvana is more expensive when using the metric.) A smaller p/s ratio is considered better since you're paying less in relation to their revenue. P/S (Price to sales): 1.37 (Compared to Carvanas 4.64. Think like a younger, more fun brother to Carvana. Shift Technologies is an ecommerce business that focuses on buying and selling used vehicles. But for those of you who are looking for a fresh play, I highly recommend you read it through. This post is going to be long, dry and honestly really boring (that's what she said). Part 1: Intro, Fundamentals, and Carvana, part 2: technicals, part 3: short squeeze potential (I know this is super annoying at this point, and this play can do well on it's own without the short squeeze but trust me just look at the numbers, it might make sense.) part 4: risks, and part 5: TL:DR. I've got a play that I think might actually go somewhere.
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